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Bilia AB Stock Analysis: Bad Market Conditions, but Will It Turn Around?



A Bit About Bilia AB:

In this segment of the stock analysis, I will delve a little into what Bilia is and what they do.

Bilia is a company that gives quarterly dividends, is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm, and operates within the automotive industry. Hence, Bilia is one of Europe's largest car dealers and sold approximately 90,000 cars (new and used) in 2023. The company operates in Sweden, Norway, Luxembourg, and Belgium, primarily offering services related to the car's lifecycle.


The sectors Bilia is involved with include car purchases, repair, car rental, maintenance, filling stations, and general service.

Personally, I am very positive about the service sector, which accounts for about 20% of the revenues, as this generates income regardless of the economic climate.



Strategy:

Bilia's strategy is focused on being the best service company in the industry, working hard to develop this in their key areas.


With the maintenance of continuous development of their service offerings to make it easier for consumers to maintain their cars. They also aim to achieve annual revenue growth of over 5% per year, an operating margin of about 5%, and a dividend payout of at least 50% of earnings per share.



Organic Growth in Service Business

They place a great emphasis on organic growth within the service sector, like improving and expanding services such as car repair, maintenance, and other car-related services. This is a significant part of Bilia's business model and contributes to creating long-term value for the company by ensuring steady income and high customer loyalty.


  • Enhanced Service and Product Offering through MobiliaCare

Bilia aims to expand its offerings through MobiliaCare, which includes new services and products targeted at car glass, stone chip repairs, and general glass treatment.


  • Growth through Acquisitions

Acquisitions are also a central part of Bilia's growth strategy. The company continuously looks for opportunities to acquire businesses that can enhance their existing portfolio and extend their geographical reach. In 2023, Bilia acquired Söderbergs Personbilar AB and Bilcentergruppen Sörmland AB, which have provided them with an expanded sales portfolio.


  • Focus on Used Cars

Bilia has a strong focus on the sale of used cars as a part of its strategy for sustainable growth.


  • Geographic Expansion

They aim to expand their geographical presence, both in their existing markets such as Sweden, Norway, Luxembourg, and Belgium, and potentially to other European countries.


  • Sustainable Business Model

A crucial part of Bilia's strategy is to maintain a sustainable business model. This involves focusing on a circular economy by utilizing resources efficiently and reducing waste. They participate in projects like "The Circular Car" and take initiatives to recycle car parts and utilize waste as a resource.


Economic Overview:

With a clear decline in both the top and bottom line in Q1 2024, Bilia stands significantly weaker. Norway is currently the clear loser, and the order backlog looks quite alarming for new car sales in all countries. The current backlog for new car sales has been almost halved and shows clear weaknesses.

Bilde av nybilsalg basert på deres geografiske marked. Betraktelig nedgang i norge og en betraktelig nedgang i backloggen på alle de geografiske markedene.

Otherwise, there is over a 30% drop in the bottom line from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, slightly higher debt, with better liquidity in the cash balance.


In general, the market is not at its peak for Bilia now, and you can see this by looking at the reports. They are still making good money, but if they can't recover, Bilia is no longer a cheap company to buy.


Statement

With a doubling of the top line and a good journey for the result, one can say that Bilia has delivered very good growth, with improved margins. They are currently experiencing poorer margins due to a weaker krone (SEK and NOK) and a tougher market.


Overall, I find the economy good, as they always make money. However, I don't like the low margins they have.


Net Income

Operation profit

Results

EBIT margin

Margin

2014

18446

562

385

3.05%

2.09%

2015

20443

929

647

4.54%

3.16%

2016

23906

841

636

3.52%

2.66%

2017

27492

923

691

3.36%

2.51%

2018

28382

943

734

3.32%

2.59%

2019

29508

1125

807

3.81%

2.73%

2020

30168

1364

984

4.52%

3.26%

2021

35509

1925

1457

5.42%

4.10%

2022

35345

2102

1622

5.95%

4.59%

2023

38514

1416

931

3.68%

2.42%


Balance

About half of their interest-bearing debt is related to leasing, which I think is starting to get quite expensive. They have significantly increased the debt to achieve the growth they have had, and I hope that this is something they will address going forward. Interest-bearing costs are currently a bit too high for me. Otherwise, the liquidity is fine, with 367 in cash at the end of Q1 2024.


In general, I would say the balance sheet is OK, although I would like to see improved control of interest-bearing costs.


interest-bearing debt

Debt

Equity

Assets

Cash

2014

280

5106

1849

6955

616

2015

791

5373

2056

7429

99

2016

1259

7621

2511

10132

104

2017

1898

8338

2620

10958

202

2018

2339

9156

2915

12071

314

2019

5152

12895

3186

16081

236

2020

4857

12448

3968

16416

2063

2021

5526

12783

4417

17200

754

2022

6939

15114

4887

20001

456

2023

7690

15081

4314

19395

264


Cash flow


There has been very little direct growth in this year's operating results, and if you compare 2014 with 2023, it is a big disappointment. Generally, the best part here is the growth they have had in dividends and the fact that they manage to maintain such high dividends during tough times. Otherwise, I feel that the operations are much weaker than desired and that they need to improve their operations.


For me, the operating result is disappointing, and I generally expect operating results over 2000 after a period of 10 years.



Operations

Investment

Finance flow

Dividend

2014

1299

-584

-254

-226

2015

835

-846

-505

-302

2016

1654

-1337

-315

-380

2017

1293

-1219

14

-412

2018

1127

-920

-102

-456

2019

1437

-934

-584

-483

2020

3155

-440

-884


2021

1987

-1248

-2048

-587

2022

676

-343

-653

-556

2023

1591

-972

-810

-791





Key Ratios

Low ROA numbers indicate that the company has quite a few assets, which makes this figure low. This is acceptable in itself, but the high ROE percentage shows that the company also has high debt based on assets, which increases the risk for me in the stock.

They typically have a debt-to-EBITDA ratio between 2-2.5, but it is somewhat weaker now.

In general, these numbers should be compared with Bilia's competitors to see how things stand!




ROA

ROE

D/E

Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio

2014

5.54%

20.82%

2.76

2.35

2015

8.71%

31.47%

2.61

1.67

2016

6.28%

25.33%

3.04

2.45

2017

6.31%

26.37%

3.18

2.57

2018

6.08%

25.18%

3.14

2.62

2019

5.02%

25.33%

4.05

3.15

2020

5.99%

24.80%

3.14

2.80

2021

8.47%

32.99%

2.89

2.46

2022

8.11%

33.19%

3.09

2.70

2023

4.80%

21.58%

3.50

3.55



Strengths and Competitive Advantages

  • Large Market Share in Sweden: The home base makes good money and they have good control there.

  • Comprehensive Infrastructure: Bilia operates in all segments within the automotive sector. Once you are with Bilia, it is easy to continue with Bilia's products and services.

  • Maintained Dividends: Even during acquisitions and a tough market in 2023, they managed to maintain dividends.

  • Diversified Across Multiple Car Brands: This provides different customer bases.

  • Focus on Key Areas: This creates specialization and improvement in understanding the areas they already exist in, helping to create a comprehensive delivery to their product buyers.


Challenges and Risk Factors

  • Exit from Germany with Write-downs: This shows that it is not necessarily easy to grow beyond national borders.

  • Highly Cyclical: 2022 and 2023 have been difficult years for Bilia and the start of 2024 has not been easy either. The backlog looks quite daunting, and dependence on the consumer economy is quite clear.

  • Leasing Costs: Leasing costs account for about 1/3 of Q1 2024's operating assets, while in 2023 it accounted for nearly 50% of operations. This presents extreme weaknesses in the company.

  • Currency Issues: Currency fluctuations have created problems for Bilia and will continue to cause noise in the margins. When the krona is weak, it is difficult to pass the entire cost onto the consumer.


Stock Analysis Conclusion

Future Prospects:

  • Will More Cars Be Owned in the Future?: When will this happen and how will Bilia react? How close are we to political incentives that discourage car ownership?

  • Market Improvement: Will the market improve with a clear upturn in the consumer economy?

  • Weak Year in 2024?: Will 2024 be a weak year or will used car sales be strong enough? Interest rates have already dropped in Sweden, how long will it take to see this reflected in Bilia?

  • Strategic Control in Belgium and Norway: Will their strategy help them gain more control in Belgium and Norway?


Summary:

A company that has delivered good results over time, even though operations have faltered. They have had some failures abroad (see sale of the German base) but are working to improve and gain good control over existing markets. In Norway, based on Q1 2024, things do not look so good, but good dividends and a generally difficult economic climate have not made everyday life easier.


In general, I like Bilia. They provide good exposure to the automotive sector and good quarterly dividends, but there are some clear weaknesses in the company that one must be aware of when owning shares.


Below you can see the car brands Bilia sells:


car brands , Volvo, BMW, MINI, TOYOTA, LEXUS, MERCEDES, PORSCHE, VOLKSWAGEN, AUDI, SKODA, SEAT, CUPRA, NISSAN, JAGUAR, LANDROVER, XPENG

I personally own a small stake in Bilia.


If you wish to delve deeper into the numbers, you can find the stock on my index page, where I have provided Google Sheets read access for those who are interested.



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